A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
